> [llms.txt](https://getlemma.com/llms.txt)

# From remit feed to 13-week cash forecast

## What an 835 feed actually tells you about cash

Your 835 feed, the same file at the center of [reconciling 835s and paper EOBs into one pipeline](/provider-guides/reconciling-835s-and-paper-eobs), is the most predictive cash signal you have. It reveals which claims have been paid, adjusted, or denied, along with anticipated deposit timing in near real-time, provided the paper remits are digitized into the same feed by [a lockbox that turns EOBs into structured data](/lockbox).

Most healthcare finance teams leverage the 835 feed for posting and reconciliation only, overlooking its forecasting potential despite containing the exact [claim-to-deposit matching data](/provider-guides/what-is-era-eob-matching-healthcare-billing) needed for cash projections.

## The three components of a forecast from 835

1. Open AR by payer, aged. Extract from your billing system as your inventory of expected cash.
2. Per-payer payment velocity. Calculate from trailing 90 days of 835 history, expressed as "days from claim to remit" per payer, converting AR into expected timing.
3. Per-payer denial and adjustment rate. Determine from the same 90-day window, converting gross AR into net expected cash.

Multiply open AR by payer × probability of payment × velocity by payer = expected cash by week. Sum across all payers to produce a 13-week forecast grounded in actual remit history rather than assumptions.

## What beats spreadsheet-based forecasting

A spreadsheet forecast built from monthly aggregate AR is wrong by 10 to 20 percent on any given week. A remit-feed-based forecast is typically within 3 to 5 percent, the kind of accuracy gain we quantify across [the four layers of billing reconciliation automation](/provider-guides/billing-reconciliation-automation-tools-healthcare). This difference carries meaningful implications when managing reserves and timing transactions.

Treasury teams should execute this analysis weekly, not quarterly.

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